The 2008 electorate was 74 percent white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino. In 2010 it was 78, 10, and 8 percent, respectively. That’s a four-point swing in favor of white voters. It’s an extra net 3.6 million white votes. And given whites voted Republican by a 60 to 37 margin, that was 2.2 million votes banked by Republicans

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The Christian Science Monitor
Boehner will fail, and Democrats will pounce in 2012

Republicans didn't sweep these elections for grand ideological reasons, but because not enough of the Democratic base showed up to vote. Exit polls also show that angry voters who flocked to Republicans will end up disappointed in their actual policies. And in 2012, Democrats will be ready.
November 8, 2010



By Markos Moulitsas Zúniga
Markos Moulitsas Zúniga is publisher of Daily Kos and author of "American Taliban: How War, Sex, Sin, and Power Bind Jihadists to the Radical Right."


Boehner will fail, and Democrats will pounce in 2012


Some excerpts :

The 2008 electorate was 74 percent white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino. This week, it was 78, 10, and 8 percent, respectively. That’s a four-point swing in favor of white voters. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s an extra net 3.6 million white votes. And given whites voted Republican by a 60 to 37 margin, that was 2.2 million votes banked by Republicans in a contest that featured myriad tight races. Flip just 150,000 votes in Pennsylvania and Illinois, and the Democrats hold both those Senate seats.

In addition, the white voters most likely to vote Democratic – the millennials – suffered from depressed turnout. In 2008, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate, while those 65-plus made up 16 percent. More youngsters voted than seniors. This year, the young cohort was down to 11 percent, while seniors were a whopping 23 percent of the electorate. That's a 24-point flip, significant because the youngsters voted Democratic 57 to 40, while the seniors opted GOP by a 59 to 38 margin.

Weak turnout hurt Democrats – a lot

Without the core Democratic base at the polls, conservatives dominated the electorate, making up 41 percent of voters. In 2008, they were 34 percent of the total. Given that even moderates opted strongly for Democrats by a 55 to 42 margin this election, their relative scarcity compared to fired up conservatives wasn’t enough to offset those massive Republican gains.

The exit polls are clear, Democrats didn’t lose because of a sudden rightward switch in the country, but because elections are won by those whose voters show up to the polls. And last Tuesday, it was Republicans.

Don't get too comfortable, Boehner

Now, this new GOP-led House will make sure that nothing of note passes, and will try to gum up the works further with investigations into President Obama’s birth certificate and other such insanities. There’s nothing Democrats can do about that, but with power comes responsibility, and presumptive Speaker John Boehner will be under pressure to walk the line between the ideological purity his tea party base demands, and the pragmatism of governing. When he fails (and he will), Democrats need to be ready to pounce.

The last three cycles have proven that the House can swing wildly from extreme to extreme. We truly have an angry, downright schizophrenic electorate, ready to take out its frustrations on whomever is in power. The Democrats took the brunt of that anger in 2010. Unless they help turn things around in America, Republicans shouldn’t get too comfortable in their new congressional digs before 2012. Especially in a year when the Democratic base will turn out.

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