Latinos gave Obama four 2008 swing states ( now they have 46 electors ) : Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. If Obama holds all four states in 2012, he can afford to lose North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia from his 2008 coalition and still win re-election so long as he carries every state both he and John Kerry did

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The "Texas Insider" seems to analyze that Latinos are kingmakers for 2012 :

In fact, thanks to added electors in the Southwestern states, if Obama wins these four pivotal latino swing states ( Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico ) then he can squeak by with 272 electors even if he loses Florida too.


As the white share of the electorate shrinks, the share of the Latino vote Republicans need to remain competitive will gradually inch higher. In those states with significant population of Latinos and Blacks, Republicans need a higher proportion of Latino support to win the electoral votes of such a state.




Texas Insider
The Latino Threshold: Where the GOP Needs Latino Votes and Why
Latino voters trending Republican or not?
February 23, 2011

By Thomas F. Schaller, he is professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. He is the author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South and national political columnist for the Baltimore Sun.


The Latino Threshold: Where the GOP Needs Latino Votes and Why


Some excerpts :

Latino support was critical for Obama in four 2008 swing states he won that will now have a combined 46 electors: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico. As Latino Decisions’ Matt Barreto points out, if Obama holds all four states in 2012, he can afford to lose North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia from his 2008 coalition and still win re-election so long as he carries every state both he and John Kerry did. In fact, thanks to added electors in the Southwestern states, Obama can squeak by with 272 electors even if he loses Florida too.

No doubt aware of Latinos as his potential electoral backstop, Obama appointed Sonia Sotomayor to become the first Latina Supreme Court justice.

Is Obama’s Latino support holding steady?

On Monday, impreMedia and Latino Decisions released a new survey showing a strangely bifurcated answer to this question: Although 70 percent of Latinos approve of Obama’s performance as president, only 43 percent say they will for certain vote for him in 2012. Of the poll results, impreMedia pollster Pilar Marrero writes that “doubts about the president and the Democrats are not turning into support for the Republicans.”

To win re-election, President Obama must close the sale again with Latinos during the next two years. But if recent numbers from Public Policy Polling in key swing states are any indication, at least in potential head-to-head matchups against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and (most especially) Sarah Palin, Obama is in as good a shape if not better in all four of Latino-pivotal swing states.

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