Electoral College 4 Presidential Election November 2012 : Sure Democrats 182, Likely Dems 14, Lean Dem 51 : Total 247, but there are 111 tossups, and Obama only needs 270 - See Electoral Maps with Colors and Strategies - Larry Sabato's Maps

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Larry Sabato has an electoral college map -- the first for 2012! - Notice that Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Missouri are not super red ( super Republican ) but only light red ( Likely Republican or leans Republican for MO ).


Huffington Post
Here Is Your First Electoral College Projection Map Of 2012, So Go Nuts, Nerds!
By Jason Linkins
April 21, 2011


Here Is Your First Electoral College Projection Map Of 2012, So Go Nuts, Nerds!


Some excerpts :

With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start-before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?

I promise you, his urgings will be in vain! But okay, here's the shocking baseline:

If you'll notice, the "battlegrounds" are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Savvy election watchers will recognize most of these states as being "where the battleground always is anyway, so, whatever."

For fun, let's review what happens in the event of a 269-269 tie or if the No Labels Bipartisan Robot secures enough votes to prevent anyone from taking 270 votes, in accordance with the 12th Amendment to the Constitution.

Should this happen -- and should no "faithless electors" emerge to switch a vote -- it would fall to the House of Representatives to determine the winner of the presidential race. But there's a twist! Each state's delegation to the House would have to vote "en bloc" -- which means each state gets a single vote. That, of course, means that in theory, this could get hung in a 25-25 tie. The smart decision would have been to allow the District of Columbia to have a vote as well, but guess what? D.C. always gets screwed. And so the balloting would continue on and on until it's resolved. (A quorum of two-thirds of all the state delegations would be necessary for these activities to take place.)

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