An April Pew Research Center poll found the president leading Romney among Hispanics 67 percent to 27 percent. That’s similar to the 67 percent to 31 percent margin among Hispanic voters that helped Obama handily beat John McCain four years ago.
Hispanic voters hold key to 2012 map
May 6, 2012
By ADAM C. SMITH
Adam C. Smith is the political editor of the Tampa Bay Times. The Tampa Bay Times and POLITICO are partnering together to cover the 2012 presidential elections.
Hispanic voters hold key to 2012 m
Some excerpts :
New Mexico: Latinos account for 46 percent of the population in New Mexico, where the average of the latest polls favors Obama by at least 14 percentage points. Obama has six campaign offices there. A conservative group, Restore Our Future, is spending more than $4 million in TV ads in battleground states including Colorado, Nevada and Florida, but not New Mexico. That’s a sign Republicans may see it as out of reach.
Colorado: About 13 percent of the state’s registered voters are Latino, and in 2010 Democrat Michael Bennet won his U.S. Senate race in large part by winning more than 8 in 10 Hispanic voters. Obama has 13 campaign offices in Colorado, where one poll last month showed a tied race and another showed Obama leading by 13 percentage points.
Nevada: About 14 percent of Nevada’s registered voters are Hispanic. Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval in 2010 became the first Hispanic elected to statewide office, though he won only 33 percent of the Hispanic vote — still much better than the 20 percent won by McCain in 2008. The last two public polls show Obama leading Romney by 8 percentage points.
Florida: This is the only state where Romney had a significant number of Hispanic voters in his Republican primary, and the latest polls show a neck-and-neck race with Obama. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found Obama leading with Hispanic voters in Florida, 58 percent to 30 percent, but still trailing Romney overall by 1 point. Obama has 27 campaign offices running, while Romney is just starting to ramp up here.
Obama won Hispanic voters in Florida with a 57 percent majority in 2008, about the same margin George W. Bush earned in 2004. Florida is a more complex mix of Hispanic voters, with one third Republican-leaning Cuban-American, 28 percent Puerto Rican and 9 percent Mexican.
Korn of the Hispanic Leadership Institute points also to Virginia, where the Latino population grew more than 90 percent between 2000 and 2010, as a state where Hispanic voters could deliver the vote, though they still account for less than 5 percent of the electorate.