A recent Latino Decisions poll showed Obama with 74 percent of the Arizona Latino vote, even better the other Southwestern states. If Obama actually received 74 percent of the Latino vote in Arizona, he would stand at 48 percent statewide, even without registering a single new voter

.
And there are many new voters to register :


The New Republic
Revisiting Arizona
By Nate Cohn
June 26, 2012


Revisiting Arizona


Some excerpts :

Over the last decade, Arizona’s burgeoning Hispanic population swelled by 46 percent and now comprises 30 percent of the state’s population. Even so, Latinos represented just 16 percent of the electorate four years ago. Concerted registration efforts will be necessary to make up lost ground and fully capitalize on demographic changes. If newfound Latino enthusiasm produces new volunteers (particularly Spanish speaking) to register voters, Obama’s recent campaign maneuvers could have a more direct impact on Latino turnout in Arizona than any other state.

How many new voters will Obama need to register before he can seriously compete for Arizona? That depends on Obama’s current share of the vote, and particularly the white vote, which made up three-quarters of the electorate in 2008. In 2004, Kerry received 41 percent of Arizonan white voters, just as he did nationally, but Obama only received 40 percent in 2008, presumably due to McCain’s presence on the ballot. Should one assume that Obama performs worse than his 40 percent share of the white vote, given the losses incurred since 2008? Or, might Obama hold his own or even do better among white voters, since even Kerry received 41 percent of the white vote?

While it might seem trite to parse the difference between 41 and 39 percent of the white vote, it has big consequences for the viability of Obama’s effort in Arizona. If the Obama campaign believed they could match Kerry’s showing among white voters, then an Obama victory might only require the Latino share of the electorate to grow by 3 or 4 percentage points—roughly the same increase as between 2004 and 2008. Further losses among white voters begin to push the limits of demographics, registration, and historic Latino political participation. If Obama was reduced to 38 percent of the white vote, it becomes difficult to get Obama beyond 48 percent of the vote without an extraordinary increase in Latino turnout of the sort often promised but never realized.

Recent Arizona polls are wildly inconsistent, making it hard to judge whether Obama is in striking distance. But the Obama campaign’s decision to deploy staff to Arizona suggests that their internal polling places Obama within range, even if they are not assured of registering the requisite number of voters. Even assuming that Obama’s operatives can meet their registration targets, it is even harder to say whether the Obama campaign would gamble on an all-out effort to secure the state, given limited resources and an uphill climb. Whether Chicago chooses to do so or not, rejuvenated Latino enthusiasm increases the odds that Obama can register the number of voters necessary to tip Chicago's calculus toward pouring millions into Arizona.

**********************